Will the expansion of tribal gambling in California hurt Nevada?

Expert speculation varies across the spectrum from the Garden of Eden to Armageddon.

In January, 2000, Harrah's announced a major tribal casino joint venture with San Diego's Rincon band. Harrah's will build and manage a $100 million casino and hotel for the tribe.

The Pala band previously announced a $90 million deal with Anchor Gaming of Las Vegas, and the United Auburn Indian Community of Northern California has signed a $100 million agreement with Station Casinos, also of Las Vegas.

The gambling industry has been using the potential expansion of tribal casinos in California as a reason to defeat Sen. Neal's initiative. However, Neal's taxation plan is three years away, while Nevada casinos are busily exporting Nevada jobs to California through tribal joint ventures. This is the equivalent of General Motors downsizing in Flint, Mich., while building new plants in Mexico.

Recent media reports have been mixed as to whether tribal casino expansion will have any significant effect on Nevada. The most bearish of the reports, below, from the Wall Street investment firm of Bear Stearns, came within hours of widely distributed stories taking the opposite point of view.

Experts disagree on whether Calif. gambling expansion will hurt Vegas
Some call Prop 1A a greater threat than state's recent Prop 5
By David Strow, LAS VEGAS SUN

Analysts see little long-term impact from Indian casinos

Report says California tribes could have strong impact on Nevada

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